Phiên bản tiếng Anh của bản báo cáo năng lực cạnh tranh 2010.pdf

$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
Vietnam’s Long-Term Prosperity Growth
1975 - 2009
GDP per
Capita,
PPP adjusted
in 1990 US$
CAGR:
+6.15%
CAGR:
+6.15%
CAGR:
+5.00%
CAGR:
+5.00%
CAGR:
+2.47%
CAGR:
+2.47%
5
Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
1997:
Asian Crisis
Global
Financial
Crisis
1986:
Doi Moi Reform
Source: Groningen Growth and Development Centre and The Conference Board (2010)
Vietnam’s Position in 2010
• Significant growth over the last two decades
• Widespread reduction in poverty
• Resilience in the face of the global economic crisis
BUT
• Still low level of prosperity and productivity
• Growing concerns about the economic sustainability of Vietnam’s
current development model
6
Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM
• Significant growth over the last two decades
• Widespread reduction in poverty
• Resilience in the face of the global economic crisis
BUT
• Still low level of prosperity and productivity
• Growing concerns about the economic sustainability of Vietnam’s
current development model
United States
Hong Kong
Australia
Singapore
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
New Zealand
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
Prosperity Performance
Selected Countries, 1999 to 2009
PPP-adjusted GDP per
Capita, 2009 ($USD)
7
Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM
New Zealand
Malaysia
Thailand
China
Indonesia
Philippines
India
Vietnam
Laos
Cambodia
Bangladesh
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0%
Source: EIU (2010), authors calculations
Growth of Real GDP per Capita (PPP-adjusted), CAGR, 2000 to 2009
Vietnam’s Labor Productivity
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
South Korea
PPP-adjusted GDP per
Employee, 1990-$USD
8
Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM
Source: Groningen Growth and Development Centre and The Conference Board (2010)
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Vietnam
China
Thailand
Indonesia
Vietnam’s Current Development Model
• Structural change, fuelled by Vietnam’s integration into the global
economy, has been the key driver of Vietnam’s growth
• Foreign investors have combined capital with Vietnamese labor and imported
inputs to serve global markets, increasingly also domestic demand
9
Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM
Structural Change and Vietnamese Growth
Decomposing Vietnamese Labor Productivity Growth, 2000 - 2008
10
Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM
Source: General Statistics Office, Vietnam; ACI calculations
Drivers of Structural Change: Economic Openness
Thailand
Vietnam
30%
40%
50%
Change in Exports as % of GDP (1989
-
2009)
Openness to Trade
Vietnam
4%
6%
8%
10%
Change in net flows of inward FDI
as % of GDP (1989
-
2009)
Openness to Investment
11
Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM
Source: EIU (2010)
China
India
Indonesia
Malaysia
Myanmar
Philippines
-10%
0%
10%
20%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Change in Exports as % of GDP (1989
-
2009)
Total Exports as % of GDP, 2009
China
India
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
0% 5% 10%
Change in net flows of inward FDI
as % of GDP (1989
-
2009)
Net flows of inward FDI as % of GDP, 2009
The Growth of the FDI Sector
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Growth (2000 = 100)
Profits (return on
fixed capital)
Profits
12
Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM
Source: Data from General Statistics Office, Vietnam.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
# Firms
Workers
Fixed Capital
• Structural change, fuelled by Vietnam’s integration into the global
economy, has been the key driver of Vietnam’s growth
• Foreign investors have combined capital with Vietnamese labor and imported
inputs to serve global markets, increasingly also domestic demand
• Value added and productivity in Vietnam remains low , especially in
manufacturing
• FDI and exports create jobs, but have not raised prosperity levels beyond the
low wages in manufacturing
• There is little evidence of positive spill-overs from FDI to the rest of the
Vietnamese economy in terms of improving productivity and technology
• Vietnam’s attractiveness to investors is almost solely the result of the low
prevailing wages
• In a changing global market environment, this is unlikely to be sufficient for
sustained growth
Vietnam’s Current Development Model
13
Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM
• Structural change, fuelled by Vietnam’s integration into the global
economy, has been the key driver of Vietnam’s growth
• Foreign investors have combined capital with Vietnamese labor and imported
inputs to serve global markets, increasingly also domestic demand
• Value added and productivity in Vietnam remains low , especially in
manufacturing
• FDI and exports create jobs, but have not raised prosperity levels beyond the
low wages in manufacturing
• There is little evidence of positive spill-overs from FDI to the rest of the
Vietnamese economy in terms of improving productivity and technology
• Vietnam’s attractiveness to investors is almost solely the result of the low
prevailing wages
• In a changing global market environment, this is unlikely to be sufficient for
sustained growth
Relative Wages: Selected Countries
$1,810$1,146$830$540$336$167$156$117$82$49$47
0
2000
J
Ave. Monthly Wage (US$)
Ave. Monthly Wage
(January 2010)
$47.36
$48.72
$82.29
$117.15
$156.19
$166.95
$336.04
$540.45
$829.71
$1,146.47
$1,809.91
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Japan
Sinapore
South Korea
Taiwan
Malaysia
Philippines/Metro Manila
Thailand/Bangkok
China/Shenzhen
Indonesia/Jakarta
Vietnam
Cambodia
Avg. monthly wage
(US$)
14
Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM
Source: Philippines Department of Labor and Employment (2010)
$1,810$1,146$830$540$336$167$156$117$82$49$47
0
2000
J
Ave. Monthly Wage (US$)
Ave. Monthly Wage
(January 2010)
$47.36
$48.72
$82.29
$117.15
$156.19
$166.95
$336.04
$540.45
$829.71
$1,146.47
$1,809.91
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Japan
Sinapore
South Korea
Taiwan
Malaysia
Philippines/Metro Manila
Thailand/Bangkok
China/Shenzhen
Indonesia/Jakarta
Vietnam
Cambodia

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